QUANTIFICATION OF PARAMETER AND CALIBRATION UNCERTAINTY IN MORPHOLOGICAL MODELLING

Anna Kroon, Matthieu de Schipper, Stefan Aarninkhof

Abstract


There are different sources of uncertainty in morphological modeling on time scales of years. The standard deterministic modelling approach does not provide any information on the amount of uncertainty contained in a forecast. This lack of information could provide a false sense of accuracy and skill. Quantitative insight in these prediction uncertainties is therefore of crucial importance for decision making in coastal engineering and management.

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References


Kroon et al. 2017. Uncertainty assessment in coastal morphology prediction with a bayesian network. Coastal Dynamics 2017

Ruessink, B. G., 2006. A Bayesian estimation of parameter-induced uncertainty in a nearshore alongshore current model. Journal of Hydroinformatics.




DOI: https://doi.org/10.9753/icce.v36.sediment.27