FUTURE WAVE PROJECTION DURING THE TYPHOON AND WINTER STORM SEASON

Shinsaku Nishizaki, Ryota Nakamura, Tomoya Shibayama, Jacob Stolle

Abstract


IPCC’s AR5 stated that it is more likely than not that the frequency of tropical cyclones (TCs) will decrease and that the intensity of TCs will increase over the Western North Pacific in the late 21st century. Until now, many researchers have tried to project wave climate according to various climate change scenario (Hemer et al., 2013). Most studies focus on the change of mean and extreme wave heights. These indices are important to evaluate the effects on coastal structures in terms of natural disaster prevention. However, the effect of climate change on wave conditions induced by extreme events is still vague. The aim of this study is to evaluate the effects of future climate change on wave conditions from one-month simulations including periods of extreme events based on the pseudo-warming method (Sato et al., 2007) with the most recent IPCC scenario.

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References


Hemer et al. (2013): Projected changes in wave climate from a multi-model ensemble, Nature Climate Change 3 (5), pp. 471-476.

Sato et al. (2007): Projection of global warming onto regional precipitation over Mongolia using a regional climate model, Journal of Hydrology, vol. 333, pp. 144- 154.




DOI: https://doi.org/10.9753/icce.v36.waves.17