ENVISIONING COASTAL FUTURES: EXPLORING ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS FOR THE US PACIFIC NORTHWEST COASTLINE

Peter Ruggiero, John Bolte, Janan Evans-Wilent, Kai Parker, Cynthia Schwartz, Katherine Serafin, John Stevenson

Abstract


Sea level rise (SLR), changing storminess patterns, and development have exposed coastal communities to chronic coastal change and flooding hazards. Several U.S. Pacific Northwest communities are at high risk from coastal hazards and local decision makers often lack tools for developing adaptive capacity to increase resilience, particularly under climate change. Several sectors (e.g., local community groups, emergency managers, and land use planners) have recently begun to define responses to perceived increases in the frequency and magnitude of coastal hazards. Here we describe the efforts of a group of Oregon State University researchers and students, outreach specialists, and coastal community members in both Tillamook County, OR and Grays Harbor County, WA who are assessing climate change impacts and associated evolving community and ecosystem resilience.

Full Text:

PDF

References


Bolte, Hulse, Gregory and Smith (2007): Modeling biocomplexity -- agents, landscapes and alternative futures. Environmental Modeling and Software 22(5): 570-579.

Serafin and Ruggiero (2014): Simulating extreme total water level events using a time-dependent, extreme value approach, Journal of Geophysical Research – Oceans, 119, 6305-6329, doi: 10.1002/2014JC010093.




DOI: https://doi.org/10.9753/icce.v36.risk.11