Monica F.Y. Buckmann, Laura Aguilera, Paulo Cesar C. Rosman


The Lagoon System of Jacarepaguá is the most vulnerable coastal area of Brazil due to its high population density and important economic activities. Severe meteorological conditions due to climate changes are more likely to affect the lagoon system in the future, increasing the exposure of the area and the probability of flooding of the low-lying surrounding areas. To determine the vulnerability of the area to diverse agents, this work addressed the impact of different combinations of sea level rise, heavy rainfall and storm surges. The study cases considered two different bathymetry conditions, the actual silting bathymetry, and the resulting bathymetry after a planned dredging project. Tidal prism, the maximum water elevations and the time of occurrence were analyzed. The main results showed that storm surge has the most impact on the maximum water elevations, overcoming the impact of an increase in the sea level, river flow and changes in bathymetry. The results of time lags comparing the time of occurrence of maximum elevation recorded at the open sea and the time of occurrence of maximum elevation on the north margin, the most populated area, of the lagoon system showed a time lag of 13-17h. The benefits of the planned dredging project would be mostly to allow a better water renovation in the lagoons, due to a higher tidal prism.

Full Text:



Aldama, A.A. 1985. Theory and applications of two- and three-scale filtering approaches for turbulent flow simulation. Ph.D. thesis, Department of Civil Engineering. Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Beam, R.M., and R.F. Warming. 1978. An Implicit Factored Scheme for the Compressible Navier-Stokes Equations. AIAA Journal, 16, 393–402.

City Council of Rio de Janeiro. 2016. Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for the City of Rio de Janeiro. Centro de Estudos Sobre Meio Ambiente e Mudanças Climáticas – COPPE/UFRJ.

Crank, J., P. Nicolson. 1947. A pratical method for numerical evaluation of solutions of partial differential equations of the heat-conduction type. Advances in Computational Mathematics, 6, 207–226.

Masterplan. 2013. “Relatório Ambiental Simplificado das Obras de Recuperação Ambiental do Complexo Lagunar de Jacarepaguá”. Masterplan – Consultoria de Projetos e Execução Ltda. Rio de Janeiro, 450.

Rio Águas. 2010. Instruções técnicas para elaboração de estudos hidrológicos e dimensionamento hidráulico de sistemas de drenagem urbana. Prefeitura da Cidade de Rio de Janeiro. Subsecretaria de Gestão de Bacias Hidrográficas – Rio Águas.

Rosman, P.C.C. 1987. Modeling Shallow Water Bodies Via Filtering Techniques. Ph.D. thesis, Department of Civil Engineering. Massachusets Institute of Technology.

Rosman, P.C.C. 2018. Referência técnica do SisBaHiA® Sistema Base de Hidrodinâmica Ambiental. COPPE/UFRJ. http://sisbahia.coppe.ufrj.br

Smagorinsky, J. 1963. General Circulation Experiments with the Primitive Equations. I. The basic experiment. Monthly Weather Review, 91.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.9753/icce.v36.papers.16