APPLICATION OF BAYESIAN NETWORK AS A TOOL FOR COASTAL FLOODING IMPACT PREDICTION AT VARNA BAY (BULGARIA, WESTERN BLACK SEA)
ICCE 2016 Cover Image
PDF

Keywords

coastal storms
coastal hazards
flooding
impact assessment
Bayesian network

How to Cite

Valchev, N., Eftimova, P., Andreeva, N., & Prodanov, B. (2017). APPLICATION OF BAYESIAN NETWORK AS A TOOL FOR COASTAL FLOODING IMPACT PREDICTION AT VARNA BAY (BULGARIA, WESTERN BLACK SEA). Coastal Engineering Proceedings, 1(35), management.14. https://doi.org/10.9753/icce.v35.management.14

Abstract

Storms and related disasters are one of the most important phenomena producing coastal hazards and endangering human life and occupation. While coastal response to extreme forcing conditions can be evaluated using numerical models, there is increasing need for less computationally expensive probability tools that can quickly produce results thus contributing to more effective coastal risk management. A possible response to this demand is a Bayesian Network, which relates near-shore storm conditions to their onshore flood potential and ultimately translates them to relevant impact (consequences) expressed as damage to various receptor groups. Bayesian Network can constitute a module in an early warning system or can be used as a planning tool to evaluate the long-term vulnerability due to multiple coastal hazards, under various climate-related scenarios. The present study describes the application of a Bayesian Network for Varna Bay building on developments made in the framework of the RISC-KIT (Resilience-Increasing Strategies for Coasts - toolKIT) project. Moreover, several alternatives involving disaster risk reduction measures were examined both in present and future climate conditions. It was found that the analysis of results through the prism of the Bayesian Network provides a useful insight of the problems at the study site making it a reliable coastal impact prediction tool.
https://doi.org/10.9753/icce.v35.management.14
PDF

References

Andreeva, N., N. Valchev, E. Trifonova, P. Eftimova, D. Kirilova and M Georgieva. 2011. Literary review of historical storm events in the western Black Sea. Proc. of Union of Scientists - Varna, "Marine sciences†, 105-112 (In Bulgarian).

Bertin, X., K. Lia, A. Roland, Y.J. Zhang, J.F. Breilh and E. Chaumillon. 2014. A modeling-based analysis of the flooding associated with Xynthia, central Bay of Biscay, Coastal Engineering, 94, 80-89.

Collet, I. and A. Engelbert. 2013. Coastal regions: people living along the coastline, integration of NUTS 2010 and latest population grid, EUROSTAT.

Dean, R.G. 1977. Equilibrium beach profiles: U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts, Department of Civil Engineering, Ocean Engineering Report No. 12, University of Delaware, Newark, DE.

Dean, R.G., D.L Kriebel and T.L. Walton. 2008. Cross-Shore Sediment Transport Processes, in: D. King (editor), Coastal Engineering Manual, Part III, Coastal Sediment Processes, Chapter II-2, Engineer Manual 1110-2-1100, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Washington, DC.

Dimitrov, D., I. Nyagolov, S. Balabanova, N. Lisev, G. Koshinchanov, A. Korcheva, Y. Marinski, L. Pashova, D. Grozdev, V. Vasilev, B. Bozhilov and N. Tsvetkova. 2013. Methods for assessment of flood hazard and flood risk, according to requirements of the EU Floods Directive 2007/60: Final Report, Black Sea Basin Directorate, Contract No D-30-62, 357 pp. (In Bulgarian)

Eftimova, P., E. Trifonova, N. Valchev and N. Andreeva. 2012. Beach erosion caused by storms. Morphological model set up and calibration, Proceedings of 11th Int. Conf. on Marine Sciences and technologies, Black Sea'2012, 69-73.

Hallegatte, S., C. Green, R. J. Nicholls and J. Corfee-Morlot. 2013. Future flood losses in major coastal cities, Nature Climate Change, 3(9), 802-806.

Jaeger, W.S., E. Christie, A.M. Hanea, C. den Heijera and T. Spencer. 2017. Decision support for coastal risk management: a Bayesian Network approach, Coastal Enginering (submitted)

Jordà, G., D. Gomis, E. Álvarez-Fanjul and S. Somot. 2012. Atmospheric contribution to Mediterranean and nearby Atlantic sea level variability under different climate change scenarios, Global and Planetary Change, 80-81, 198-214.

Kunz, M., B. Muhr, T. Kunz-Plapp, J. E. Daniell, B. Khazai, F. Wenzel, M. Vannieuwenhuyse, T. Comes, F. Elmer, K. Schröter, J. Fohringer, T. Munzberg, C. Lucas and J. Zschau. 2013. Investigation of superstorm Sandy 2012 in a multi-disciplinary approach, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2579-2598.

Lindemer, C.A., N.G. Plant, J.A. Puleo, D.M. Thompson and T.V. Wamsley. 2010. Numerical simulation of a low-lying barrier island's morphological response to Hurricane Katrina, Coastal Engineering, 57, 985-995.

McCall, R.T., J.S.M. van Thiel de Vries, N.G. Plant, A.R. van Dongeren, J.A. Roelvink, D.M. Thompson and A.J.H.M. Reniers. 2010. Two-dimensional time dependent hurricane overwash and erosion modeling at Santa Rosa Island, Coastal Engineering, 57, 668-683.

Moss, R., M. Babiker, S. Brinkma, E. Calvo, T. Carter, J. Edmonds, I. Elgizouli, S. Emori, L. Erda, K. Hibbard, R. Jones, M. Kainuma, J. Kelleher, J. F. Lamarque, M. Manning, B. Matthews, J. Meehl, L. Meyer, J. Mitchell, N. Nakicenovic, B. O'Neill, R. Pichs, K. Riahi, S. Rose, P. Runci, R. Stouffer, D. van Vuuren, J. Weyant, T. Wilbanks, J. P. van Ypersele and M. Zurek. 2008. Towards New Scenarios for Analysis of Emissions, Climate Change, Impacts, and Response Strategies. Geneva: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 132 pp.

National Statistical Institute (NSI). 2011. 2011 Population Census in the Republic of Bulgaria (final data), 2011, 51 pp.

Pearl, J. and S. Russel. 1988. Bayesian Networks. University of California, http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/1859204.1859227.

Roelvink, D., A. Reniers, A. van Dongeren, J. van Thiel de Vries, R. McCall and J. Lescinski. 2009. Modelling storm impacts on beaches, dunes and barrier islands. Coastal Engineering, 56, 1133-1152.

Stakev, M. 1980. About the break-down state of some coastal structures after the storm in February 1979. Shipbuilding and Navigation, 10, 26-30 (in Bulgarian).

Trifonova, E., N. Valchev, N. Andreeva and P. Eftimova. 2012. Critical storm thresholds for morphological changes in the western Black Sea coastal zone, Geomorphology, 143-144, 81-94.

Valchev, N., E. Trifonova and N. Andreeva. 2012. Past and recent trends in the western Black Sea storminess, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 1-17.

Valchev, N., N. Andreeva, P. Eftimova, B. Prodanov and I. Kotsev. 2016. Assessment of vulnerability to storm induced flood hazard along diverse coastline settings, Proceedings of 3rd European Conf. on Flood Risk Management, FLOODrisk 2016, E3S Web of Conferences 7 10002.

Valchev, N., P. Eftimova and N. Andreeva. 2017. Implementation and validation of a multi-domain coastal hazard forecasting system in an open bay, Coastal Engineering (submitted)

Van Dongeren, A., P. Ciavola, G. Martinez, C. Viavattene, S. DeKleermaeker, O. Ferreira, C. Costa and R. McCall. 2016. RISC-KIT: Resilience-increasing Strategies for Coasts, Proceedings of 3rd European Conf. on Flood Risk Management, FLOODrisk 2016, E3S Web of Conferences 7 17001

Van Thiel de Vries, J.S.M. 2009. Dune Erosion during Storm Surges. Delft Univesity of Technology

Vousdoukas, M.I., E. Voukouvalas, A. Annunziato, A. Giardino and L. Feyen. 2016. Projections of extreme storm surge levels along Europe, Climate Dynamics, 47(9), 1-20.

West, M. and J. Harrison. 1997. Bayesian forecasting and dynamic models, Springer, 694 pp.

Authors retain copyright and grant the Proceedings right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this Proceedings.