ON THE GENERIC UTILIZATION OF PROBABILISTIC METHODS FOR QUANTIFICATION OF UNCERTAINTY IN PROCESS-BASED MORPHODYNAMIC MODEL APPLICATIONS

Freek Scheel, Wiebe P. de Boer, Rob Brinkman, Arjen P. Luijendijk, Roshanka Ranasinghe

Abstract


A variety of uncertainty sources are inherent in process-based morphodynamic modelling applications. There is an increasing demand for the quantification of these uncertainties. This contribution introduces a probabilistic-morphodynamic (PM) modelling framework that enables this quantification. The PM modelling framework provides a systematic approach, while also lowering the required effort for inclusion of uncertainty quantification in morphodynamic model studies. Applicability and added value is shown using a pilot application to the Holland coast.

Keywords


morphodynamics; process-based morphodynamic models; uncertainties; probabilistics; uncertainty quantification; probabilistic-morphodynamic modelling framework; Unibest CL+; Holland coast

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.9753/icce.v34.sediment.88