Keywords
dune erosion
extreme events
overwash
run-up level
breaching
How to Cite
Abstract
Climate change calls for coastal management to consider longer time scales. The main objective of this study is to develop an analytical tool for long-term dune management to help evaluate the risk associated with high water levels, high waves, and their joint probability, as well as the probability of dune erosion, overwash, and breaching to occur. The tool also aims to identify vulnerable dune sections. A case study was made in Ystad Sandskog beach located on the south coast of Sweden. Data covering 20 years were used to investigate probabilities and consequences resulting from extreme waves and water levels. The data were also manipulated in order to indicate future implications in the context of climate change. The analytical tool turns out to be easy to implement and to interpret. The case study shows that Ystad Sandskog beach is subject to dune erosion and that many houses and infrastructure located behind the dunes may be exposed to more frequent flooding in the future.References
Bruun, P., 1954. Coast erosion and the development of beach profiles. Tech. Memo. No. 44. Beach Erosion Board, Washington, D.C.
Dahlerus, C. J. and Egermayer, D., 2005. Run-up and Sand Dune Erosion Along the Coast of Ystad - Present Situation and Future Scenarios. M.Sc. Thesis, Lund University.
Dean, R. G. 1977. Equilibrium Beach Profiles: U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coasts. In: Engineering, D.O.C. (ed.) Ocean Engineering Report No. 12. Newark, Delaware: University of Delaware.
Hanson, H. and Larson, M., 2008. Implications of extreme waves and water levels in the southern Baltic Sea. Journal of Hydraulic Research, 46, 292-302.
Hudson, D.A. and Jones, R.G., 2002. Simulations of present-day and future climate over southern Africa using HadAM3H. Hadley Centre, Technical note 38.
Hunt, I. A., 1959. Design of Seawalls and Breakwaters. J. Waterways and Harbors Div., 123-152.
IPCC, 2013. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I, Contribution to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Summary for policymakers.
Karoly, D.J., Braganza, K., Stott, P.A., Arblaster, J.M., Meehl, G.A., Broccoli, A.J., and Dixon, K.W., 2003. Detection of a Human Influence on North American Climate. Science, vol 302, issue 5648, pp 1200-1203.
Komen, G.J., Cavaleri, L., Donelan, M., Hasselmann, K., Hasselmann, S., and Janseen, P.A.E.M., 1994. Dynamics and Modeling of Ocean Waves. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K.
Kriebel, D.L., Kraus, N.C., and Larson, M., 1991. Engineering methods for predicting beach profile response. Coastal Sediments '91 (ASCE), pp. 557-571.
Larson, M., Erikson, L., and Hanson, H., 2004. An analytical model to predict dune erosion due to
wave impact. Coastal Engineering, 51(8), 675-696.
Larson, M. and Hanson, H., 1992. Analysis of Climatologic and Hydrographic Data for the Bay of Ystad. Department of Water Resources Engineering, Lund University, Sweden.
Larson, M. and Hanson, H., 2008. Implications of extreme waves and water levels in the southern Baltic Sea. Journal of Hydraulic Research, 46 (SUPPL. 2), pp. 292-302.
Meier, M., Broman, B., and Kjellström, E., 2004. Simulated sea level in past and future climates of the Baltic Sea. Rossby Centre, Clim. Res., vol 27:50-75.
SMHI, 2009. Sea Water Levels along the Swedish Coast. [online] Norrköping, Sweden: SMHI. Available at: >http://www.smhi.se/polopoly_fs/1.6387!webbhavsvattenstand%5B2%5D.pdf< [Accessed 5 January 2014].