Sofia Westergren, Magnus Larson, Hans Hanson


Climate change calls for coastal management to consider longer time scales. The main objective of this study is to develop an analytical tool for long-term dune management to help evaluate the risk associated with high water levels, high waves, and their joint probability, as well as the probability of dune erosion, overwash, and breaching to occur. The tool also aims to identify vulnerable dune sections. A case study was made in Ystad Sandskog beach located on the south coast of Sweden. Data covering 20 years were used to investigate probabilities and consequences resulting from extreme waves and water levels. The data were also manipulated in order to indicate future implications in the context of climate change. The analytical tool turns out to be easy to implement and to interpret. The case study shows that Ystad Sandskog beach is subject to dune erosion and that many houses and infrastructure located behind the dunes may be exposed to more frequent flooding in the future.


Baltic Sea; dune erosion; extreme events; overwash; run-up level; breaching

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