PREDICITON OF INUNDATION DISASTER DUE TO STORM SURGE UNDER GLOBAL WARMING

Takeshi Suzuki, Hidenori Shibaki, Katsuyuki Suzuyama

Abstract


This study clarifies the characteristics of the disaster risks induced under the scenarios of global warming. In this study, the sea level rise and typhoon intensity based on the scenarios of A1FI and A1B produced by IPCC 4th Assessment Report are considered for the conditions of storm surge disaster in future climate. They are predicted for the target years of 2040 and 2060 as the middle term as well as of 2100 as the long term target. On these conditions of sea level and typhoon intensity, a newest model of storm surge inundation is employed for estimation of inundation area and asset damage. in the coastal and hinterland area in the Ise Bay. Several disaster risks induced by storm surge are estimated quantitatively.

Keywords


Global warming; IPCC; inundation disaster; storm surge

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References


Knutson, T.R. and R.E. Tuleya. 2004. Impact of CO2-induced warming on simulated hurricane intensity and precipitation; Sensitivity to the choice of climate model and convective parameterization, J. Clim., 17, 3477-3495.

National Research Council. 1987. Responding to Changes in Sea Level Engineering Implications, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C..

Shibaki H., Nakai K., Suzuyama K. and Watanabe A. 2004. Multi-level storm surge model incorporating density stratification and wave-setup. Proc. of 29th Int. Conf. on Coastal Eng., ASCE, 1539-1551.




DOI: https://doi.org/10.9753/icce.v34.management.32