BASIC STUDY ON ESTIMATION METHOD OF RETURN PERIOD AND VARIATION RANGE OF SEVERE STORM SURGE EVENT

Sota Nakajo; Nobuhito Mori; Kim Soo-Youl; Tomohiro Yasuda; Fumihiko Yamada; Hajime Mase

doi:10.9753/icce.v34.management.29

No. 34 (2014), Coastal Management, Environment, and Risk

No. 34 (2014)

BASIC STUDY ON ESTIMATION METHOD OF RETURN PERIOD AND VARIATION RANGE OF SEVERE STORM SURGE EVENT

Coastal Management, Environment, and Risk

https://doi.org/10.9753/icce.v34.management.29

Published 2014-10-30

Sota Nakajo⁺⁻
Nobuhito Mori⁺⁻
Kim Soo-Youl⁺⁻
Tomohiro Yasuda⁺⁻
Fumihiko Yamada⁺⁻
Hajime Mase⁺⁻

Sota Nakajo

Kumamoto University

Nobuhito Mori

Kyoto University

Kim Soo-Youl

Tottori University

Tomohiro Yasuda

Kyoto University

Fumihiko Yamada

Kumamoto University

Hajime Mase

Kyoto University

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Keywords

storm surge
return period
stochastic tropical cyclone model

How to Cite

Nakajo, S., Mori, N., Soo-Youl, K., Yasuda, T., Yamada, F., & Mase, H. (2014). BASIC STUDY ON ESTIMATION METHOD OF RETURN PERIOD AND VARIATION RANGE OF SEVERE STORM SURGE EVENT. Coastal Engineering Proceedings, 1(34), management.29. https://doi.org/10.9753/icce.v34.management.29

Abstract

Probability risk assessment of storm surge is difficult because the number of historical data of tropical cyclone is not enough for region. Most hazard maps for storm surge were designed based on the assumption that intense tropical cyclone approached in target area. However, its return period and variation range of storm surge have not been considered carefully so much. In this study, we examined them by using stochastic tropical cyclone model and physical storm surge model. Target area was Yatsushiro bay in west Kyshu Island in Japan. From physical storm surge height caused by 300 causes, we decided the severe storm surge scenario and the variation range of maximum storm surge height caused by change of translation speed and radius of tropical cyclone. Finally, by using stochastic tropical cyclone model, the return period of severe storm surge event was estimated about 370 year.

https://doi.org/10.9753/icce.v34.management.29

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References

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BASIC STUDY ON ESTIMATION METHOD OF RETURN PERIOD AND VARIATION RANGE OF SEVERE STORM SURGE EVENT

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