QUANTIFYING CLIMATE CHANGE AND DETERMINING FUTURE COASTAL DESIGN STORMS FOR EASTERN AUSTRALIA

William Leslie Peirson, Tomas Shand, James E Ruprecht, Nathan Guerry, Jason Evans, Ron Cox, Mahmudul Hassan

Abstract


Coastal inundation has both potential marine and inland contributions. Using a suite of Global Circulation Models, their skill in representing the key fundamental coastal engineering design forcings (mean sea level pressure, wind and precipitation) has been quantified at the 20 year ARI. Skill is assessed by comparison with measured and assembled data along the temperate east Australian coast. Clear extreme distributions are available from GCM output which show no sign of saturation within the tails of extreme distributions. Extreme surface pressures and winds are comparable with the available data giving confidence to the coastal engineering community that GCMs provide data that is suitable for coastal engineering design. GCMs also provide much longer and more detailed data than is available from equivalent measured records. When changes under the A2 scenario are considered, the consensus of the models is that little change in 20 year extreme surface pressures and rainfall are anticipated over the next 100 years with an accompanying 10% decrease in design wind.

Keywords


climate change; coastal inundation; design

Full Text:

PDF

References


AS/NZS 1170.2:2011 Structural design actions. Part 2: Wind actions. Standards Australia Limited/Standards New Zealand. ISBN 978 0 7337 9805 4

Bengtsson, L. M., K. I. Hodges, M. Esch, N. Keenlyside, L. Kornbleuh, J.-J. Luo, and T. Yamagata, (2007) How may tropical cyclones change in a warmer climate? Tellus, 59A, 539-561

Caron, L.-P., and C.G. Jones (2008) Analysing present, past and future tropical cyclone activity as inferred from an ensemble of Coupled Global Climate Models, Tellus, Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 60 A(1), 80-96.

CEM (2006) Coastal Engineering Manual. US Army Corps of Engineers. EM 1110-2-1100. 1 June 2006

DCC (2009) Climate Change Risks to Australia’s Coast. A First Pass National Assessment. Department of Climate Change, Commonwealth of Australia. ISBN: 978-1-921298-71-4

DECCW (2009) Draft Flood Risk Management Guide: Incorporating sea level rise benchmarks in flood risk assessments. Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water NSW. DECCW 2009/711 October 2009. ISBN 978 1 74232 467 8

Emanuel, K., R. Sundararajan, and J. Williams, 2008: Hurricanes and global warming - results from downscaling IPCC AR4 simulations. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 89, 347-367

Lambert, S.J., and J.C. Fyfe (2006) Changes in winter cyclone frequencies and strengths simulated in enhanced greenhouse warming experiments: Results from the models participating in the IPCC diagnostic exercise, Climate Dynamics, 26(7-8), 713-728.

Mearns, L.O., I. Brogardi, et al. (1999) Comparison of climate change scenarios generated from regional climate model experiments and statistical downscaling, J. Geophys. Res., 104(D6), 6603-6621.

Meehl, G. A., C. Covey, T. Delworth, M. Latif, B. McAvaney, J. F. B. Mitchell, R. J. Stouffer, and K. E. Taylor, 2007: The WCRP CMIP3 multi-model dataset: A new era in climate change research, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 88, 1383-1394

NCCOE (1991) Guidelines for responding to the effects of climatic change in coastal engineering design. National Committee on Coastal and Ocean Engineering, The Institution of Engineers, Australia, ISBN 85825 564 2, 50pp.

Peirson, W.L., T.D. Shand, J.E. Ruprecht, J. Evans and R.J. Cox (2011) Assessment of the Effects of Air-Sea-Land Interaction Processes on the Intensity and Impact of Modelled and Observed Coastal Extratropical Cyclones. Water Research Laboratory Research Report 244. August. ISBN

Perkins, S. E., and A. J. Pitman (2009) Do weak AR4 models bias projections of future climate changes over Australia?, Climatic Change, 93(3-4), 527-558.

Shand, T. D., Goodwin, I. D., Mole, M. A., Carley, J. T., Coghlan, I. R., Harley, M. D. and Peirson, W. L. (2010) NSW Coastal Inundation Hazard Study: Coastal Storms and Extreme Waves. UNSW Australia Water Research Laboratory Technical Report 2010/16

Sinclair, M. R., and I. G. Watterson, 1999. Objective assessment of extratropical weather systems in simulated climates. J. Climate, 12, 3467-3485

Watson, P. J. (2014). Development of a unique synthetic data set to improve sea level research and understanding. J. Coastal Research, (in press).

Wernli, H. and Schwierz, C. (2006) Surface Cyclones in the ERA-40 Dataset (1958–2001). Part I: Novel Identification, Method and Global Climatology. J. Atmos. Sci., 63, 2486-2507

Wilby, R.L., and T.M.L. Wigley, 1997. Downscaling general circulation model output: a review of methods and limitations, Progress in Physical Geography, 21(4), 530-548.

Zheng, F., Seth Westra, S., Sisson, S.A. (2013) Quantifying the dependence between extreme rainfall and storm surge in the coastal zone. J. Hydrology, 505, 172–187




DOI: https://doi.org/10.9753/icce.v34.management.26