FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENTS - RESULTS, APPLICATIONS AND FUTURE REQUIREMENTS

Andreas Kortenhaus, Hocine Oumeraci

Abstract


This paper summarises and discusses the key results of two research projects one of which was a 4-year joint research project in Germany (XtremRisK) and the other comprised applications of the XtremRisK results to selected cases in Denmark (HARIMA-DK) within the framework of the European Flood Directive on the generation of hazard and risk maps for preselected areas. The former project focused on improving and expanding the existing knowledge, methods and models on flood risk assessments for extreme storm surges with respect to (a) extreme storm surge for current conditions and scenarios for climate change, (b) failure mechanisms of flood defences, (c) assessment of tangible and intangible losses, (d) integrated flood risk analysis involving the aforementioned developments and its implementation for two selected pilot sites (representative for an open coast and an urban estuarine area in Germany). The HARIMADK project used these results, applied it and produced flood risk maps for selected coastal areas in Denmark. The key results of both projects are briefly summarised, lessons learned are discussed and some conclusions for future flood risk studies are finally drawn.

Keywords


flood risk assessment; storm surge; extremes; intangible losses; risk mapping

Full Text:

PDF

References


Burzel, A.; Dassanayake, D.; Oumeraci, H. (2012): Spatial Modelling of tangible and intangible losses in integrated risk analysis – results of the XtremRisK project. Proceedings 2nd European Conference on Flood Risk Management, FLOODrisk2012, CRC Press, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, pp. 557-565.

Dassanayake, D.; Burzel, A.; Oumeraci, H. (2012): Intangible flood losses: methodologies for their evaluation and their integration in flood risk analysis. Proceedings 2nd European Conference on Flood Risk Management, FLOODrisk2012, CRC Press, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, pp. 585-590.

Gönnert, G.; Müller, O.; Gerkensmeier, B. (2012): Development of extreme storm surge events – Results of the XtremRisK project. Proceedings 2nd European Conference on Flood Risk Management, FLOODrisk2012, CRC Press, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, pp. 45-53.

Grimm, C., Bachmann, D., Schüttrumpf, H. (2013): Development and application of a flood risk analysis for coastal regions. 6th SCACR - International Short Conference on Applied Coastal Research, Lissabon, Portugal.

Hallegatte S. (2008): An adaptive regional input-output model and its application to the assessment of the economic cost of Katrina, Risk

Analysis, vol. 25, no. 3, pp. 779-799.

Kowalewski, J.; Ujeyl, G. (2012): Estimating direct and indirect damages from storm surges: The case of Wilhelmsburg/Hamburg. Proceedings 2nd European Conference on Flood Risk Management, FLOODrisk2012, CRC Press, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, pp. 577-583.

Naulin, M.; Kortenhaus, A.; Oumeraci, H. (2012): Reliability analysis and breach modelling of flood defences in an integrated risk analysis – results of the XtremRisK project. Proceedings 2nd European Conference on Flood Risk Management, FLOODrisk2012, CRC Press, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, pp. 279-289.

Oumeraci, H.; Kortenhaus, A.; Burzel, A.; Naulin, M.; Dassanayake, D.R.; Jensen, J.; Wahl, T.; Mudersbach, C.; Müller, O.; Gönnert, G.; Gerkensmeier, B.; Fröhle, P.; Daemrich, K.-F.; Pasche, E.; Ujeyl, G. (2012): Integrated flood risk analysis for extreme storm surges at open coasts and in estuaries: background, methodology, key results and lessons learned - results of the XtremRisK project. Proceedings 2nd European Conference on Flood Risk Management, FLOODrisk2012, CRC Press, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, pp. 645-654.

Penning-Rowsell, E.C., Floyd, P., Ramsbottom, D. & Surendran, S. (2005): Estimating Injury and Loss of Life in Floods: A Deterministic Framework. Natural Hazards, vol. 36, pp. 43–64.

Skov, M.; Jebens, M.; Schürenkamp, D.; Burzel, A.; Kortenhaus, A., Piontkowitz, T. (2014): Flood hazard and risk maps for the 2nd step of the EU Floods Directive in Denmark. Proceedings 34th International Conference on Coastal Engineering (ICCE 2014), Seoul, South Korea, these proceedings.

Tayel, M.F.T.; Oumeraci, H. (2012): Prediction of extreme storm surge water levels using recurrent artificial neural networks. Proc. 10th Intern. Conf. Hydroinformatics, Hamburg, Germany.

Wahl, T., Mudersbach, C., and Jensen, J. (2011): Assessing the hydrodynamic boundary conditions for risk analyses in coastal areas: a stochastic storm surge model. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., vol. 11, pp. 2925–2939.

Zanuttigh, B. (2014): Coasts@Risks: THESEUS, a new wave in coastal protection. Special Issue, Coastal Engineering, vol. 87, p. 1-248.

Zanuttigh, B.; Simcic, D.; Bagli, S.; Bozzeda, F.; Pietrantoni, L.; Zagonari, F.; Hoggart, S.; Nicholls, R.J. (2013): THESEUS decision support system for coastal risk management. Coastal Engineering, vol. 87, pp. 218-239.




DOI: https://doi.org/10.9753/icce.v34.management.15