Tomoya Shimura, Nobuhito Mori, Tomohiro Yasuda, Hajime Mase


Long term changes in ocean waves elicit a variety of impacts on a coastal environment. In order to assess the future changes in ocean wave climate, future projections of global wave climates have been carried out by previous studies. However, previously there has been little discussion about the causes behind changes in future wave climate and the differences between projections. The objective of this study is to estimate the future changes in mean wave climate and the sensitivity of the wave climate to Sea Surface Temperature (SST) conditions, in an effort to understand the mechanism behind the wave climate changes by specifically looking at spatial SST variation. A series of wave climate projections forced by surface winds from the MRI-AGCM3.2H were conducted based on SST ensemble experiments. The results show future changes in seasonal mean wave heights that are within about ± 0.4 m depending on the region and season. The future changes in summertime wave heights in the Western North Pacific (WNP) are highly sensitive to SST conditions that are influenced by tropical cyclone changes. The spatial variation of SST in the tropical Pacific Ocean is a major factor in the wave climate changes for the WNP during summer.


climate change; wave climate; future projection

Full Text:



E. Charles, D. Idier, P. Delecluse, M. Déqué, and G. Le Cozannet. Climate change impact on waves in the Bay of Biscay, France. Ocean Dynamics, 62(6):831–848, 2012.

J. Cruz. Ocean Wave Energy: Curent Status and Future Perspectives. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 2008.

S. C. Delcanbre, D. J. Lorenz, D. J. Vimont, and J. E. Martin. Diagnosing Northern Hemisphere jet portrayal in 17 CMIP3 global climate models: 21st century projections. Journal of Climate, 26:4930–4946, 2013.

M. Dobrynin, J. Murawski, and S. Yang. Evolution of the global wind wave climate in CMIP5 experiments. Geophysical Research Letter, 39:L18606, 2012.

Y. Fan, I. M. Held, S.-J. Lin, and X. L. Wang. Ocean warming effect on surface gravity wave climate change for the end of the 21st century. Journal of Climate, 26:6046–6066, 2013.

S. Gulev and V. Grigorieva. Last century changes in ocean wind wave height from global visual wave data. Geophysical Research Letters, 31:L24302, 2004.

S. Hallegatte, C. Green, R. J. Nicholls, and J. Corfee-Morlot. Future flood losses in major coastal cities. Nature Climate Change, 3:802–806, 2013.

M. Hemer, Y. Fan, N. Mori, A. Semedo, and X. Wang. Projected changes in wave climate from a multi- model ensemble. Nature Climate Change, 3:471–476, 2013a.

M. A. Hemer, J. A. Church, and J. R. Hunter. Variability and trends in the directional wave climate of the southern hemisphere. International Journal of Climatology, 30(4):475–491, 2010.

M. A. Hemer, J. Katzfey, and C. E. Trenham. Global dynamical projections of surface ocean wave climate for a future high greenhouse gas emission scenario. Ocean Modelling, 70:221–245, 2013b.

M. A. Hemer, X. L. Wang, R. Weisse, and V. R. Swail. Advancing wind-waves climate science: The COWCLIP project. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 93(6):791–796, 2012.

R. K. Hoeke, K. L. McInnes, J. Kruger, R. McNaught, J. R. Hunter, and S. G. Smithers. Widespread inundation of pacific islands triggered by distant-source wind-waves. Global and Planetary Change, 108:128–138, 2013.

IPCC-AR5. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013.

R. Knutti, D. Masson, and A. Gettelman. Climate model genealogy: Generation CMIP5 and how we got there. Geophysical Research Letter, 40:1194–1199, 2013.

Y. Kuriyama, M. Banno, and T. Suzuki. Linkages among interannual variations of shoreline, wave and climate at hasaki, japan. Geophysical Research Letters, 39(6):L06604, 2012.

G. A. Meehl, C. Covey, K. E. Taylor, T. Delworth, R. J. Stouffer, M. Latif, B. McAvaney, and J. F. Mitchell. The WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset: A new era in climate change research. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 88(9):1383–1394, 2007.

M. Menéndez, F. Méndez, I. Losada, and N. Graham. Variability of extreme wave heights in the northeast Pacific Ocean based on buoy measurements. Geophysical Research Letters, 35:L22607, 2008.

R. Mizuta, H. Yoshimura, H. Murakami, M. Matsueda, H. Endo, T. Ose, K. Kamiguchi, M. Hosaka, M. Sugi, S. Yukimoto, S. Kusunoki, and A. Kitoh. Climate simulations using MRI-AGCM3.2 with 20-km grid. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 90A:233–258, 2012.

N. Mori, T. Shimura, T. Yasuda, and H. Mase. Multi-model climate projections of ocean surface variables under different climate scenarios ― Future change of waves, sea level and wind. Ocean Engineering, 71: 122–129, 2013.

N. Mori, T. Yasuda, H. Mase, T. Tom, and Y. Oku. Projection of extreme wave climate change under global warming. Hydrological Research Letters, 4(0):15–19, 2010.

H. Murakami, R. Mizuta, and E. Shindo. Future changes in tropical cyclone activity projectedby multi- physics and multi-SST ensemble experiments using the 60-km-mesh MRI-AGCM. Climate Cynamics, 39:2569–2584, 2012.

N. Rayner, D. Parker, E. Horton, C. Folland, L. Alexander, D. Rowell, E. Kent, and A. Kaplan. Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 108(D14):4407, 2003.

W. Sasaki. Changes in wave energy resources around Japan. Geophysical Research Letter, 39(L23702), 2012.

A. Semedo, K. Sušelj, A. Rutgersson, and A. Sterl. A global view on the wind sea and swell climate and variability from ERA-40. Journal of Climate, 24:1461–1479, 2011.

A. Semedo, R. Weisse, A. Behrens, A. Sterl, L. Bengtsson, and H. Günther. Projection of global wave climate change towards the end of the 21st century. Journal of Climate, 26:8269–8288, 2013.

T. Shimura, N. Mori, and H. Mase. Future projection of ocean wave climate : Analysis of SST impacts on wave climate changes in the Western North Pacific. Journal of Climate, submitted, 2014.

A. D. Short. Handbook of beach and shoreface morphodynamics. John Wiley & Sons, 1999.

K.-D. Suh, S.-W. Kim, N. Mori, and H. Mase. Effect of climate change on performance-based design of caisson breakwaters. Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering, 138(3):215–225, 2012.

H. Tolman. User manual and system documentation of WAVEWATCH III version 3.14. NOAA/NWS/NCEP/MMAB Technical Note, 276, 2009.

H. L. Tolman and D. Chalikov. Source terms in a third-generation wind wave model. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 26(11):2497–2518, 1996.

X. Wang and V. Swail. Changes of extreme wave heights in Northern Hemisphere oceans and related atmospheric circulation regimes. Journal of Climate, 14(10):2204–2221, 2001.

X. Wang and V. Swail. Climate change signal and uncertainty in projections of ocean wave heights. Climate Dynamics, 26(2):109–126, 2006.

I. Young, S. Zieger, and A. Babanin. Global trends in wind speed and wave height. Science, 32:451–455, 2011.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.9753/icce.v34.management.6