Christian Schlamkow, Norman Dreier, Peter Fröhle, Dörte Salecker


Information about possible changes of extreme wave heights are essential for the future safe design of coastal and flood protection structures likes dykes, flood protection dunes, revetments etc. In this study, scenarios of regional climate change up to 2100 are used for the evaluation of changes of wave conditions. Analyses on calculated significant wave heights derived from extreme value statistics are showing a different signal of change for the selected locations along the German Baltic Sea Coast. The results are showing that extreme wave heights with a return level of 200 years can increase up to +14%. But also a decrease of down to -14% were found compared to actual conditions, depending on the location and climate change scenario applied. At the location of Warnemünde a slight increasing trend for the change of extreme wave heights could be found for 3 of 4 scenario runs with a maximum increase of +7%.


Baltic Sea; climate change; extreme waves; Cosmo-CLM

Full Text:



Booij, N., Ris, R.C. and Holthuijsen, L.H. 1999. A third-generation wave model for coastal regions. Part I - Model description and validation. Journal of Geophysical Research, 104, C4, 7649-7666.http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/98JC02622

Dreier, N., Schlamkow, C., Fröhle, P. & Salecker, D. 2012. Future wave conditions at the German Baltic Sea Coast on the basis of wind-wave-correlations and regional climate change scenarios. In: Book of Abstracts – PIANC-COPEDEC VIII: Eighth International Conference on Coastal and Port Engineering in Developing Countries, IIT Madras, Chennai, India, 20-24 February 2012.

Fröhle, P., Fittschen T. 1999. Assessment of short-term directional wave measurements with respect to long-term statistical evaluations. Proc. 5th Int. Conf. on Coastal and Port Engineering in Developing Countries (COPEDEC V), Cape Town, South Africa, 1005-1016.

Fröhle, P. 2000. Messung und statistische Analyse von Seegang als Eingangsgröße für den Entwurf und die Bemessung von Bauwerken des Küstenwasserbaus (Measurement and statistical analysis of sea state as a basis for design of coastal engineering constructions), Rostocker Berichte aus dem Fachbereich Bauingenieurwesen, Heft 2, Rostock, 2000 (in German language).

IPCC, 2007. Climate Change 2007. Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 976pp.

Meinke, I., Gerstner, E., von Storch, H., Marx, A., Schipper, H., Kottmeier, C., Treffeisen, R. and Lemke, P. 2010. Regionaler Klimaatlas Deutschland der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft informiert im Internet über möglichen künftigen Klimawandel. Mitteilungen DMG 02/2010, 5-7, ISSN 0177-8501.

Nakićenović, N., Alcamo, J., Davis, G., de Vries, B., Fenhann, J., Gaffin, S., Gregory, K., Grübler, A., Jung, T.Y., Kram, T., La Rovere, E.L., Michaelis, L., Mori, S., Morita, T., Pepper, W., Pitcher, H., Price, L., Raihi, K., Roehrl, A., Rogner, H.-H., Sankovski, A., Schlesinger, M., Shukla, P., Smith, S., Swart, R., van Rooijen, S., Victor, N. and Dadi, Z. 2000. Emissions Scenarios. A Special

Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York, 599 pp.

Rockel, B., Will, A. and Hense, A. (eds.) 2008. Special Issue: Regional climate modelling with COSMO-CLM (CCLM). Meteorologische Zeitschrift, Vol. 17.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.9753/icce.v33.management.5