Jennifer L. Irish, Celso Ferreira, Donald T Resio, Francisco Olivera, Chih Hung Hsu


Assessment of hurricane flooding risk is an essential component for effective coastal planning and engineering design. Existing methods for evaluating extreme-value flood statistics traditionally assume that flood conditions are stationary, such that historical information represents future conditions. However, dynamic changes in the environment, specifically changing sea levels and potential changes in hurricane intensity and rate of occurrence, mean that future flooding risk will not be adequately represented by historical conditions alone. In this paper, an approach is proposed for incorporating future sea level and hurricane climate projections into extreme-value flood probabilities and risk assessment.


storm surge; extreme-value statistics; hurricanes; risk

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