PREDICTION METHOD FOR THE WAVE HEIGHT DISTRIBUTION OEF THE WESTERN COAST OE TAIWAN

Abstract

Taiwan Strait locates on the continental shelf of the western Pacific Ocean. The water depth is less than 100 meters. Furthermore, the bathemetry of the eastern side namely the offing of western coast of Taiwan shoals gradually. In consequence, in case of the wind "blows from the north to south, waves in the deeper part of the strait refract to he north west direction while they are approaching the shore and local waves directly generated by the wind still keep the same direction of the wind. The situation is shown in Figure 1. Erom September to April of the next year, anticyclones come from Mongolia causes monsoon in this area. The wind velocity in the monsoon sometimes exceeds 20 meters per second, but it is arround 10 meters per second in general. Howerer, the duration of winds over 5 meters per second has been recorded more than 50 days. Engineering works such as towing caissons for building breakwater as well as dredging offshore have to be done in these days. Furthermore, navigation operations should not be stopped unless the wind is too strong. Of course, waves are forecast every day, however, more precise information about the probability of the occurrence of certain wave height is of great significance. In last conference, the authors submitted a probability density function of wave heights in this area. This distribution model is to be remended by considering energy loss in this paper, and concrete forecasting procedure is submitted for engineering and navigation practice.