Tomohiro Yasuda, Hajime Mase, Shoji Kunitomi, Nobuhito Mori, Yuta Hayashi


This study presents a stochastic typhoon model (STM) for estimating the characteristics of typhoons in the present and future climate conditions. Differences of statistical characteristics between present and future typhoons were estimated from projections by an Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) under a climate change scenario and are taken into account in the stochastic modelling of future typhoons as a climate change signal. From the STM results which utilize the Monte Carlo simulation, it was found that the frequency of typhoon landfall in Osaka bay area, Japan, will decrease, although the mean value of atmospheric central pressure of typhoon will not change significantly. The arrival probability of stronger typhoons will increase in the future climate scenario.


stochastic typhoon model; Monte Carlo simulation; AGCM; frequency of landfall; central atmospheric pressure

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