Sylvin Müller-Navarra, Ingrid Bork


Due to local tidal conditions, vessels coming in from the North Sea and bound for the port of Hamburg – more than 100 km upstream – require continually updated hydrological and oceanographic forecasts. The principal objective of the research project OPTEL (Operational Elbe Tidal Estuary Model) is to provide hydrological and oceanographic forecasts about water levels, depths, currents, salinity, temperature and ice conditions for any tidally influenced place on the river Elbe. By using a numerical model, it is ensured that water levels and currents are coupled dynamically, which allows peak water levels, slack water times, and – in 3D modelling – flow profile to be modelled in a physically consistent way and with high resemblance to natural conditions. The model concept including model output statistics (MOS) and first model results are presented.


tidal river Elbe; numerical model; water level forecasts; model output statistics (MOS)

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