Nicolas Chini, Peter Stansby, Mike Walkden, Jim Hall, Judith Wolf, Jason Lowe, Robert Nicholls


Assessment of nearshore response to climatic change is an important issue for coastal management. To predict potential effects of climate change, a framework of numerical models has been implemented which enables the downscaling of global projections to an eroding coastline, based on TOMAWAC for inshore wave propagation input into SCAPE for shoreline modelling. With this framework, components of which have already been calibrated and validated, a set of consistent global climate change projections is used to estimate the future evolution of an un-engineered coastline. The response of the shoreline is sensitive to the future scenarios, underlying the need for long term large scale offshore conditions to be included in the prediction of non-stationary processes.


coastal morphology; climate change; numerical model downscaling

Full Text:



Benoit, M., F. Marcos and F. Becq. 1996. Development of a third generation shallow-water wave model with unstructured spatial meshing, Proceedings of 25th International Conference on Coastal Engineering, ASCE, 465–478.

Benoit, M., F. Lafon and G. Goasguen. 2008. Constitution et exploitation d'une base de données d'étatsde mer le long des côtes françaises par simulation numérique sur 23 ans. Base ANEMOC en Atlantique-Manche-mer du Nord, European Journal of Environmental and Civil Engineering, 12, 35–50.

Chini, N., P. Stansby, J. Leake, J. Wolf, J. Roberts-Jones and J. Lowe. 2010. The impact of sea level rise and climate change on inshore wave climate: A case study for East Anglia (UK), Coastal Engineering, 57, 973–984.

Clayson, C.H. and J.A. Ewing. 1988. Directional wave data recorded in the Southern North Sea, Report 258, Institute of Oceanographic Sciences, Deacon Laboratory, 72p.

Dawson, R.J., M.E Dickson, R.J. Nicholls, J.W. Hall, M.J.A. Walkden, P.K. Stansby, M. Mokrech, J. Richards, J. Zhou, J. Milligan, A. Jordan, S. Pearson, J. Rees, P.D. Bates, S. Koukoulas and A.R. Watkinson. 2009. Integrated analysis of risks of coastal flooding and cliff erosion under scenarios of long term change, Climatic Change, 95, 249–288.

Dickson, M., M.J.A. Walkden and J.W. Hall. 2007. Systemic impacts of climate change on an eroding coastal region over the twenty-first century, Climatic Change, 84, 141–166.

Flather, R.A., J.A. Smith, J.D. Richards, C. Bell and D.L. Blackman. 1998. Direct estimates of extremestorm surge elevations from a 40-year numerical model simulation and from observations, Global Atmosphere and Ocean System, 6, 165–176.

Horsburgh, K.J., and C. Wilson. 2007. Tide–surge interaction and its role in the distribution of surge residuals in the North Sea, J. Geophys. Res., C4 (112), C08003.

HR Wallingford. 2002. Overstand to Mundesley strategy study: hydrodynamics, HR Wallingford Ltd, Report.

Leake, J., J. Wolf, J.A. Lowe, P.K. Stansby, G. Jacoub, R. Nicholls, M. Mokrech, S. Nicholson-Cole, M.J.A. Walkden, A. Watkinson and S. Hanson. 2007. Integrated modeling for coastal impacts, Proceedings of 10th International Conference on Estuarine and Coastal Modelling, Newport. ASCE, NewYork.

Leake, J., J. Wolf, J. Lowe, J. Hall and R. Nicholls. 2008. Response of marine climate to future climate change: application to coastal regions, Proceedings of 31st International Conference on Coastal Engineering, ASCE.

Lowe, J.A., and J.M. Gregory. 2005. The effects of climate change on storm surges around the United Kingdom, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 363, 1313–1328. PMid:16191652

Lowe, J.A., T.P., Howard, A. Pardaens, J. Tinker, J. Holt, S. Wakelin, G. Milne, J. Leake, J. Wolf, K.Horsburgh, T. Reeder, G. Jenkins, J. Ridley, S. Dye and S. Bradley. 2009. UK Climate Projections Science Report: Marine and Coastal Projections. Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK.

Mokrech, M., S. Hanson, R. Nicholls, J. Wolf, M. Walkden, C. Fontaine, S. Nicholson-Cole, S. Jude, et al. 2009. The Tyndall coastal simulator, Journal of Coastal Conservation, in press.

Nairn, R.B. and H.N. Southgate. 1993. Deterministic profile modelling of nearshore processes. Part 2. Sediment transport and beach profile development, Coastal Engineering, 19, 57–96.

Nicholls, R., S. Hanson, M. Mokrech, P. Stansby, N. Chini, M. Walkden, R. Dawson, N. Roche, J. Hall, S. Nicholson-Cole, A. Watkinson, S. Jude, J. Lowe, J. Wolf, J. Leake, M. Rounsevell, C. Fontaine and L. Acosta-Michlik. 2008a. The Tyndall coastal simulator and interface, Proceedings of 31st International Conference on Coastal Engineering, ASCE.

Nicholls, R., P. Wong, V. Burckett, C. Woodroffe and J. Hay. 2008b. Climate change and coastal vulnerability assessment: scenarios for integrated assessment, Sustainability Science, 3, 89–102. Shore Protection Manual. 1984. US Army Coastal Engineering Research Centre.

Stansby, P.K., C. Kuang, D. Laurence and B. Launder. 2006. Sandbanks for coastal protection: implications of sea-level rise, Part 1: application to East Anglia, Working Paper 86, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research.

Vincent, C.E. 1979. Longshore sand transport rates — A simple model for the East Anglian coastline, Coastal Engineering, 3, 113–136.

Walkden, M.J.A. and J.W. Hall. 2005. A predictive mesoscale model of the erosion and profile development of soft rock shores, Coastal Engineering, 52, 535–563.