Laurits Bernitt, Patrick Lynett


Risk Analysis of sea dikes is a fundamental tool for protection of human health and safety, private and public property and cultural heritage. The modern risk concept defines risk as the product of inundation probability times the consequences of inundation. The risk concept is a versatile tool for any matter, public, private or environmental endangered by storm surges. The hydraulic task in a sea dike risk analysis is the determination of the internal water level. The present breaching intensity model, is part of a connected complex of models for transforming an external surge to an internal inundation. The complex is calibrated on the New Orleans East Back Levee breaches blown by hurricane Katrina in 2005.


sea dike, levee; storm surge; overtopping; hydraulic load; back slope strength; grass; hydraulic fill; breach development; breach intensity; length effect; hurricane Katrina; New Orleans; inundation; risk analysis; reliability analysis

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