AN ADVANCED STATISTICAL EXTREME VALUE MODEL FOR EVALUATING STORM SURGE HEIGHTS CONSIDERING SYSTEMATIC RECORDS AND  SEA LEVEL RISE SCENARIO

Christoph Mudersbach; Juergen Jensen

doi:10.9753/icce.v32.currents.23

No. 32 (2010), Swash, Nearshore Currents, and Long Waves

No. 32 (2010)

AN ADVANCED STATISTICAL EXTREME VALUE MODEL FOR EVALUATING STORM SURGE HEIGHTS CONSIDERING SYSTEMATIC RECORDS AND SEA LEVEL RISE SCENARIO

Swash, Nearshore Currents, and Long Waves

https://doi.org/10.9753/icce.v32.currents.23

Published 2011-01-29

Christoph Mudersbach⁺⁻
Juergen Jensen⁺⁻

Christoph Mudersbach

University of Siegen

Juergen Jensen

University of Siegen

Proceedings of the 32nd International Conference

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Keywords

extreme value statistics
non-stationary time series
design levels

How to Cite

Mudersbach, C., & Jensen, J. (2011). AN ADVANCED STATISTICAL EXTREME VALUE MODEL FOR EVALUATING STORM SURGE HEIGHTS CONSIDERING SYSTEMATIC RECORDS AND SEA LEVEL RISE SCENARIO. Coastal Engineering Proceedings, 1(32), currents.23. https://doi.org/10.9753/icce.v32.currents.23

Abstract

In this paper, a non-stationary extreme value analysis approach is introduced in order to determine coastal design water levels for future time horizons. The non-stationary statistical approach is based on the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution and a L-Moment parameter estimation as well as a Maximum-Likelihood-estimation. An additional approach considers sea level rise scenarios in the non-stationary extreme value analysis. All the methods are applied to the annual maximum water levels from 1849-2007 at the German North Sea gauge at Cuxhaven. The results show, that the non-stationary GEV approach is suitable for determining coastal design water levels.

https://doi.org/10.9753/icce.v32.currents.23

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References

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