A Comparison and Evaluation of Similar and Dissimilar Group Scenarios Generated Using Manual Simulation Games

William C. House


Future-oriented manual simulation games have proven to be useful in generating scenarios of possible future environments facing business organizations. One such game, Futuribles, has 288 playing cards with each card containing a statement of possible future events. These cards can be grouped into 19 major categories. In playing the game, each player draws seven cards from the deck and selects two events he thinks are most likely to occur during the next ten years. The Futuribles game is used as the vehicle to generate scenarios in this experiment involving two groups of students with similar and dissimilar self images and interests. Each student was given a brief self description, self- image questionnaire. The students were then divided into groups of two to three, based on similarity and dissimilarity of reported self description of attributes. The scenarios produced by the similar and dissimilar groups are compared to note significant similarities and differences. ~t is hypothesized that the similar interest groups will demonstrate much less diversity and more consistency in the choice of their primary events and cross-impacts. The dissimilar groups should exhibit more diversity and a wider range of choices in developing their scenarios. The experience is expected to reveal insights into the effect of self image upon the amount of creativity and diversity in scenarios.

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