The Use of Expert Systems to Develop Strategic Scenarios: an Experiment Using A Simulated Market Environment

Andrew Varanelli, Marion Sackson, Denis Cronin, Carol Lazaro Dulberg

Abstract


An experiment is proposed that will constitute an initial step in building a comprehensive expert system model that will simulate strategic scenarios of use in the evaluation of policy and strategic circumstances affecting the contemporary organization. Construction of the expert system model will proceed over several stages. Making use of historical data and specific decision rules, the system will attempt to describe the group decision making with a management game played in conjunction with an undergraduate management course. It is expected that the findings of this experiment will provide a preliminary understanding of the methods by which an expert system develops strategies. The experiment will contribute to the growing interest by the business community in the applicability of expert systems to business decision making.

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