MODELLING SHORELINE EVOLUTION IN RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE

Anna Zacharioudaki; Dominic E Reeve

doi:10.9753/icce.v32.management.28

No. 32 (2010), Coastal Management, Environment, and Risk

No. 32 (2010)

MODELLING SHORELINE EVOLUTION IN RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE

Coastal Management, Environment, and Risk

https://doi.org/10.9753/icce.v32.management.28

Published 2011-01-17

Anna Zacharioudaki⁺⁻
Dominic E Reeve⁺⁻

Anna Zacharioudaki

University of the Algarve

Dominic E Reeve

University of Plymouth

Proceedings of the 32nd International Conference

PDF

Keywords

modeling
shoreline
climate change
statistical significance

How to Cite

Zacharioudaki, A., & Reeve, D. E. (2011). MODELLING SHORELINE EVOLUTION IN RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE. Coastal Engineering Proceedings, 1(32), management.28. https://doi.org/10.9753/icce.v32.management.28

Abstract

In this paper we examine the evidence for detectable climate change impacts on shoreline evolution. In a sequentially linked set of models, climate change scenarios are taken from atmospheric climate models and used to generate time slices of deepwater wave climate, nearshore wave climate and shoreline evolution. The models used are simple, containing the key physical processes only. Results are based on a hypothetical case which has some similarities to a site on the south coast of the UK. Output from the model is analysed using a robust statistical methodology to determine the evidence for statistically significant differences between beach behaviour under current conditions and several future scenarios. Statistically significant differences vary with season and also with the combination of climate model outputs used for input. Summers are the only season for which all models showed significant changes, corresponding to an increase in the net eastward littoral transport.

https://doi.org/10.9753/icce.v32.management.28

PDF

References

Abernethy, C.L. and G. Gilbert. 1975. Refraction of wave spectra. Hydraulics Research Station, Wallingford Report INT117, May 1975.

Beniston, M., Stephenson, D. B., Christensen, O. B., Ferro, C. A. T., Frei, C., Goyette, S., Halsnaes, K., Holt, T., Jylha, K., Koffi, B., Palutikof, J., Scholl, R., Semmler, T., and Woth, K., 2007. Future extreme events in European climate: an exploration of regional climate model projections. Climatic Change, 81 (Supplement 1), 71-95.http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9226-z

Bradbury, A.P., Mason, T.E., and Holt, M.W., 2004. Comparison of the Performance of the Met Office UK-Waters Wave Model with a Network of Shallow Water Moored Buoy Data. Proceedings of the 8th International Workshop on Wave Hindcasting and Forecasting, Hawaii.

CERC, 1977. Shore protection manual. Coastal Engineering Research Center, U.S. Corps of Engineers, Vicksburg.

Christensen, J. H. and Christensen, O. B., 2007. A summary of the PRUDENCE model projections in European climate by the end of this century. Climatic Change, 81(Supplement 1): 7-30.http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9210-7

Christensen, J.H., Christensen, O.B., Lopez, P., van Meijgaard, E., and Botzet, M., 1996. The HIRHAM4 Regional Atmospheric Climate Model. DMI Scientific Report No. 96-4, DMI, Copenhagen.

Christensen, J.H., T.R. Carter, M. Rummukainen and G. Amanatidis. 2007. Evaluating the performance and utility of regional climate models: the PRUDENCE project, Climatic Change, 81 (S 1), p1-6.

Cowell, P.J., Stive, M.J.F., Niedoroda, A.W., Swift, D.J.P., De Vriend, H.J., Buijsman, M.C., Nicholls,R.J., Roy, P.S., Kaminsky, G.M., Cleveringa, J., Reed, C.W., and De Boer, P.L., 2003. The coastal tract (Part 2): an applications of aggregated modelling to lower-order coastal change. Journal of Coastal Research, 19(4): 828-848.

Donelan, M., 1980. Similarity theory applied to the forecasting of wave heights, periods and directions. Canadian Coastal Conference, Burlington, Canada, pp. 47-61.

Freund, J.E., 1992. Mathematical Statistics. Prentice Hall, Inc, New Jersey, 576 pp.

Hosking, A. and McInnes, R., 2002. Preparing for the impacts of climate change on the Central South Coast of England: a framework for future risk. Journal of Coastal Research, 36(SI): 381-389.

Hulme, M., Jenkins, G.J., Lu,X., Turnpenny, J.R., Mitchell, T.D., Jones, R.G., Lowe, J., Murphy, J.M., Hasell, D., Boorman, P., McDonald, R., and Hill, S., 2002. Climate change scenarios for the United Kingdom: the UKCIP02 scientific report. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK, 120 pp.

IPCC SRES, 2000. Special report on emissions scenarios (SRES). A special report of working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 559 pp.

IPCC WG1, 2007. Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of the Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 940 pp.

Kaas, E., Andersen, U., Flather, R.A., Willimas, J.A., Blackman, D.L., Lionello, P., Dalan, F., Elvini,E., Nizzero, A., Malguzzi, P., Pfizenmayer, A., von Storch, H., Dillingh, D., Phillipart, M., de Ronde, J., Reistad, M., Midtbø, K.H.,Vignes, O., Haakenstad, H., Hackett, B., Fossum, I., Sidselrud, L., 2001. Synthesis of the STOWASUS-2100 project: regional storm, wave and surge scenarios for the 2100 century. Danish Climate Centre Report 01-3, 27 pp.

Komar,P.D., 1998. Beach processes and sedimentation. Prentice Hall, Inc, New Jersey, 544 pp.

Pope, V.D., Gallani, M.L., Rowntree, P.R., and Stratton, R.A., 2000. The impact of new physical parameterizations in the Hadley Centre climate model: HadAM3. Climate Dynamics, 16: Räisänen, J., Hansson, U., Ullerstig, A., Döscher, R., Graham, L. P., Jones, C., Meier, M., Samuelsson, P., and Willén, U., 2003. GCM driven simulations of recent and future climate with the Rossby Centre coupled atmosphere - Baltic Sea regional climate model RCAO. RMK No.101, Rossby Centre, SMHI. 123-146.

Roeckner, E., Arpe, K., Bengtsson, L., Christoph, M., Claussen, M., Dumenil, L., Esch, M., Giorgetta, M., Schlese, U., and Schulzweida, U., 1996. The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM-4: Model description and simulation of present-day climate. MPI Report 218, MaxPlanck-Insitut fur Meteorologie, 90 pp.

SCOPAC, 2003. Poole harbour entrance to Hengistbury Head (Poole Bay). SCOPAC Sediment transport study, 42 pp.

Sutherland J, Gouldby B. 2003. Vulnerability of coastal defences to climate change. Water and Maritime Engineering 156(WM2): 137-145.http://dx.doi.org/10.1680/wame.2003.156.2.137

Wikipedia 2010.

Zacharioudaki, A. and D.E. Reeve, 2010. A note on the numerical solution of the one-line model, Environmental Modeling and Software, 25, p802-807.http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2009.11.015

Zacharioudaki, A. 2008. Mathematical modelling of shoreline evolution under climate change. PhD thesis, Faculty of Technology, School of Engineering, University of Plymouth, 259 pp.

Zwiers, F. W. and von Storch, H., 1995. Taking serial correlation into account in tests of the mean. Journal of Climate, 8: 336-351.http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1995)008<0336:TSCIAI>2.0.CO;2

Authors retain copyright and grant the Proceedings right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this Proceedings.

Most read articles by the same author(s)

Xin Lu, Qingping Zou, Dominic E Reeve, 2D LARGE-EDDY SIMULATION OF WATER-WAVE IMPACT DURING VIOLENT OVERTOPPING EVENTS , Coastal Engineering Proceedings: No. 32 (2010): Proceedings of 32nd Conference on Coastal Engineering, Shanghai, China, 2010.
David K Jones, Qingping Zou, Dominic E Reeve, MODELLING STORM SURGE WAVE OVERTOPPING OF SEAWALLS WITH NEGATIVE FREEBOARD , Coastal Engineering Proceedings: No. 32 (2010): Proceedings of 32nd Conference on Coastal Engineering, Shanghai, China, 2010.
Thomas J van Veelen, Harshinie Karunarathna, William G Bennett, Tom P Fairchild, Dominic E Reeve, NATURE-BASED COASTAL PROTECTION: WAVE DAMPING BY FLEXIBLE SALT MARSH VEGETATION , Coastal Engineering Proceedings: No. 36v (2020): Proceedings of virtual Conference on Coastal Engineering, 2020
Jose M Horrillo-Caraballo, Shunqi Pan, Dominic E Reeve, Dave Simmonds, Deborah Greaves, Andrew Fox, MODELLING EXTREME WAVE EVENTS (PRESENT AND FUTURE SCENARIOS) IN SOUTHWEST ENGLAND , Coastal Engineering Proceedings: No. 33 (2012): Proceedings of 33rd Conference on Coastal Engineering, Santander, Spain, 2012
Harshinie Karunarathna, Dominic E Reeve, Mark Spivack, ON MODELLING BEACH PROFILE EVOLUTION , Coastal Engineering Proceedings: No. 32 (2010): Proceedings of 32nd Conference on Coastal Engineering, Shanghai, China, 2010.
Jose M Horrillo-Caraballo, Harshinie U Karunarathna, Dominic E Reeve, Shunqi Pan, A HYBRID-REDUCED PHYSICS MODELLING APPROACH APPLIED TO THE DEBEN ESTUARY, UK , Coastal Engineering Proceedings: No. 34 (2014): Proceedings of 34th Conference on Coastal Engineering, Seoul, Korea, 2014
Ian Ball, Edgar Mendoza-Baldwin, David Simmonds, Adrián Pedrozo-Acuña, Dominic E Reeve, LABORATORY OBSERVATIONS OF IMPACTS ON COARSE SEDIMENT BEACHES , Coastal Engineering Proceedings: No. 32 (2010): Proceedings of 32nd Conference on Coastal Engineering, Shanghai, China, 2010.
Alec Torres-Freyermuth, Adrián Pedrozo-Acuña, Dave Simmonds, Dominic E Reeve, Paulo Salles, MOMENTUM BALANCE UNDER PLUNGING BREAKERS: THE ROLE OF ADVECTION ON SEDIMENT MOBILIZATION AND TRANSPORT , Coastal Engineering Proceedings: No. 32 (2010): Proceedings of 32nd Conference on Coastal Engineering, Shanghai, China, 2010.

MODELLING SHORELINE EVOLUTION IN RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE

Keywords

How to Cite

Download Citation

Abstract

References

Most read articles by the same author(s)