Marcello Sano, Scott Baum, Marcus Bussey, RW Bill Carter, Florence Crick, Aliasghar Golshani, Darryl Low Choy, Russell Richards, Anne Roiko, Silvia Serrao-Neumann, Kristen Splinter, Timothy F Smith, Rodger Tomlinson


In coastal management under climatic pressures, the final aim of vulnerability assessments, system thinking or scenario planning exercises is to inform the identification of the most appropriate adaptation options for communities under risk of coastal hazards and climate change. In this paper we show how we combined these techniques for coastal settlements adaptation in South East Queensland, one of the most populated Australian regions, including: (i) the use of suburb-level mapping and numerical modelling to identify and assess vulnerability hotspots (ii) the development and testing of systems thinking and bayesian modelling techniques to explore adaptation pathways and the adaptive capacity of coastal communities and (iii) the use of scenario planning techniques to test adaptation options in an uncertain future. We show how these outcomes were used to develop a range of research-based adaptation policies, programs and actions and to inform the preparation of practical guidance for councils across Queensland.


vulnerability; systems thinking; scenario planning; adaptation options; coastal hazards; climate change


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