RELIABILITY ANALYSIS AND BREACH MODELLING OF SEA/ ESTUARY DIKES AND COASTAL DUNES IN AN INTEGRATED RISK ANALYSIS

Marie Naulin, Andreas Kortenhaus, Hocine Oumeraci

Abstract


In order to quantify the risk of flooding, an integrated risk analysis is being performed within the German ‘XtremRisK’ project (Extreme storm surges at open coasts and estuarine areas: risk assessment and mitigation under climate change aspects) wherein one task is to analyze the reliability and breaching of flood defences. In this paper, the methods and results of the reliability analysis and the breach modelling of sea and estuary dikes and coastal dunes are discussed and applied to examples of the pilot sites of Hamburg (Elbe Estuary) and the Island of Sylt (North Sea). These results are put in context of an integrated flood risk analysis approach used in XtremRisK.

Keywords


reliability analysis; failure mechanisms; sea dike; dune; flood defences; risk analysis; breaching

References


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