OPERATIONAL FORECASTING OF BEACH MORPHODYNAMICS. RELIABILITY AND PREDICTIONS LIMITS

Agustín Sánchez-Arcilla, Vicenç Gracia, Manel Grifoll, Manuel Garcia, Elena Pallarés

Abstract


.The paper presents a nested and coupled modelling suite including meteorological, waves, currents and morphodynamics sub-routines. The sequence has been applied to two distinctive beaches along the Catalan coast in the Spanish Mediterranean. Models and observations from two intensive campaigns have been compared to establish the accuracy and reliability of morphodynamic simulations, with the aim to determine uncertainty intervals and to assess the suitability of using such a modelling tool for reducing storm induced risks in beach management

Keywords


operational; beach morphodynamics

References


Booij, N., Ris, R.C., and Holthuijsen, L. 1999. A third-generation wave model for coastal regions, part 1: Model description and validation. Journal of Gephysical Research, 104, 7649-7666.http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/98JC02622

Dudhia, J., 1993: "A nonhydrostatic version of the Penn State-NCAR Mesoscale Model: Validation tests and simulation of an Atlantic cyclone and cold front". Mon. Wea. Rev. 121: 1493-1513.http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1993)121<1493:ANVOTP>2.0.CO;2

Ciavola, P., Ferreira O., Haerens P., Van Koningsveld M., Armaroli C. and Lequeux Q., 2011a. Storm impacts along European coastlines. Part 1: The joint effort of the MICORE and ConHaz Projects. Environmental Science and Policy, Volume 14, Issue 7, November 2011,912–923

Ciavola P, Ferreira O, Haerens P, Van Koningsveld M and Armaroli C. 2011b. Storm impacts along European coastlines. Part 2: lessons learned from the MICORE project. Environmental Sciencen and Policy, Volume 14, Issue 7: 924-933. doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2011.05.009.http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2011.05.009

Grifoll M., A.L. Aretxabaleta, M. Espino, and J.C. Warner. 2012. Along-shelf current variability on the catalan innershelf (nw mediterranean). Journal of Geophysical Research, 117. In press.http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2012JC008182

Jordà, G., and P. De Mey. 2010, Characterization of error dynamics in a 3D coastal model of the Catalan sea using stochastic modelling, Continental Shelf Research, 30(5), 419-441.http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2009.12.013

Millot, C. 1999, Circulation in the Western Mediterranean Sea, Journal of Marine Systems, 20(1–4), 423-442.http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0924-7963(98)00078-5

Mason, E., J. Molemaker, A. F. Shchepetkin, F. Colas, J. C. McWilliams, and P. Sangrà (2010), Procedures for offline grid nesting in regional ocean models. Ocean Modelling 35 (1-2), 1-15.http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2010.05.007

Rippeth, T. P., J. H. Simpson, R. J. Player, and M. Garcia. 2002, Current oscillations in the diurnal–inertial band on the Catalonian shelf in spring, Continental Shelf Research, 22(2), 247-265.http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0278-4343(01)00056-5

Ris, R.C., Holthuijsen, L.H., and Booij, N. 1999. A third-generation wave model for coastal regions, part 2: Verification. Journal of Geophysical Research, 104, 7667-7681.http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/1998JC900123

Roelvink D., Reniers A., van Dongeren A., van Thiel de Vries J., McCall R. & Lescinski J. 2009. Modeling storm impacts on beaches, dunes and barrier islands, Coastal Engineering, 56, Issues 11-12.

Rubio, A., P. A. Arnau, M. Espino, M. del M. Flexas, G. Jordà, J. Salat, J. Puigdefàbregas, and A. S.-Arcilla. 2005, A field study of the behaviour of an anticyclonic eddy on the Catalan continental shelf (NW Mediterranean), Progress In Oceanography, 66(2–4), 142-156.http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2004.07.012

Salat, J., J. Tintore, J. Font, D.-P. Wang, and M. Vieira.1992, Near-Inertial Motion on the Shelf-Slope Front off Northeast Spain, Journal of Geophysical Research, 97(C5), 7277-7281.http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/92JC00588

Sánchez-Arcilla, A., and J. H. Simpson. 2002, The narrow shelf concept: couplings and fluxes, Continental Shelf Research, 22(2), 153-172.http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0278-4343(01)00052-8

Shchepetkin, A. F. and J. C. McWilliams, 2008: Computational kernel algorithms for fine-scale, multiprocess, long-term oceanic simulations. In: Handbook of Numerical Analysis, Vol. XIV: Computational Methods for the Ocean and the Atmosphere, P. G. Ciarlet, editor, R. Temam & J. Tribbia, guest eds., Elsevier Science, pp. 121-183.

Soulsby, R. L. 1997. Dynamics of Marine Sands. London: Thomas Telford.

PMCid:1343100

Tonani, M., N. Pinardi, C. Fratianni, J. Pistoia, S. Dobricic, S. Pensieri, M. de Alfonso, and K. Nittis 2009, Mediterranean Forecasting System: forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores, Ocean Science, 5(4), 649-660.http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/os-5-649-2009

van Rijn, L. C., D. J. R. Walstra, B. Grasmeijer, J. Sutherland, S. Pan, & J. P. Sierra. 2003. The predictability of cross-shore bed evolution of sandy beaches at the time scale of storms and seasons using process-based Profile models. Coastal Engineering 47(3): 295–327.http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0378-3839(02)00120-5

van Rijn, L. 2007. Unified view of sediment transport by cur-rent and waves, part I, II, III and IV. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering 1336: 649–689 (part I & part II); 7: 761–793 (part III & part IV).

Vousdoukas, M.I., Ferreira, Ó., Almeida, L.P., Pacheco, A. 2012. Towards reliable storm-hazard forecasts: XBeach calibration and its potential application in an operational early-warning system. Ocean Dynamics, 61: 1001-1015.http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10236-012-0544-6


Full Text: PDF

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.