BASIC EXAMINATION OF FUTURE CHANGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE AND STORM SURGE PROPERTIES UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

Sota Nakajo, Nobuhito Mori, Tomohiro Yasuda, Hajime Mase

Abstract


Recently high-resolution Global Climate Model (GCM) shows that global climate changes may cause the future change of the Tropical Cyclone (TC) characteristics, such as frequency, developing process and intensity. However, there are two difficulties for assessment of future TC disaster, one is uncertainty of future prediction in GCM, and another is shortage of sample TC data. In this paper, we estimated future changes of TC properties and reduced uncertainty by ensemble averaging of multi-GCM prediction results, and generated many synthetic TC data with Global Stochastic Tropical Cyclone Model (GSTCM). In addition, GSTCM which have empirical temporal correlation algorithm was improved for the reproducibility of arrival TC statistics by cluster analysis of TC data. This upgrade could pave the way to local future prediction of TC disaster.

Keywords


tropical cyclone; Monte-Calro simulation; cluster analysis; climate change

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