DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY IN COASTAL ZONE MANAGEMENT

Angélica Félix, Asunción Baquerizo, Juan Manuel Santiago, Miguel Ángel Losada

Abstract


We analyze decision making under uncertainty in a search for an integral management solution for Playa Granada in the Guadalfeo River Delta (Granada, Spain), where the construction of a dam in the river basin is causing severe erosion. Different management strategies are considered. For each of them the assessment of the uncertainty in the accomplishment of the management targets is done with a methodology that takes into account the coupled action of atmosphere, ocean, and land agents and their intrinsic stochastic character. This information is used to infer the joint distribution function of three criteria that represent the economic benefit of different interest groups. A stochastic multicriteria decision method that accounts for the uncertainty in the performances of alternatives and also in decision makers preferences, is used to rank strategies according to their effectiveness in an informed and transparent process.

Keywords


Stochastic multi-criteria analysis; integrated coastal zone management; decision making under uncertainty

References


Ávila, A. 2007. Procesos de múltiple escala en la evolución de la línea de costa. PhD Thesis. Universidad de Granada, Spain. 161 pp.

Baquerizo, A. and M. A. Losada. 2008. Human interaction with large scale coastal morphological evolution. an assessment of the ucertainty. Coastal Engineering, Vol. 55, pp. 556-580.http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2007.10.004

Dean, R. G. and R. A. Dalrymple. 2004. Coastal Processes with Engineering Applications. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

Exceltur, 2005. Resumen Ejecutivo - Impactos sobre el entorno, la economía y el empleo de los distintos modelos de desarrollo turístico del litoral mediterráneo Espa-ol, Belares y Canarias. Deloitte - Exceltur (

Félix, A., A. Baquerizo, J.M. Santiago and M. A. Losada (2012). Coastal zone management with stochastic multi-criteria analysis. Journal of Environmental Management, 112, 252-266.http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2012.05.033

PMid:22940123

Junta de Andalucía. 2006. Decreto 59/3006 de 14 de marzo por el que se acuerda la formulación del Plan de Ordenación del Territorio del Litoral de Granada. Consejería de Obras Públicas y Transporte.

Lahdelma, R. and P. Salminen. 2001. Smaa-2: Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis for Group Decision Making. Operations Research, 49(3):444-454.http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/opre.49.3.444.11220

La Caixa, 2010. Anuario Económico de Espa-a 2010.

Losada M. A., A. Baquerizo, M. Ortega-Sánchez and A. Ávila. 2011. Coastal evolution, sea level and assessment of intrinsic uncertainty. Journal of Coastal Research. Special Issue, No. 59, pp. 218-1. Proceedings of the Nicholas C. Kraus Honorary Symposium.

Losada M. A. 2012. Las Riberas del Mar Océano (The ocean and sea shores of Spain). Scripts and DVDs of the RTVE series, pp 170, Bilingual edition. Ed. M.A. Losada, Universidad de Granada.

Patronato de Turismo. 2004-2009. Memorias 2004-2009. Observatorio turístico de la Provincia de Granada

Palmquist, R. B. 2005. Property value models. In Handbook of Environmental Economics, Vol. 2, ELSEVIER, Netherlands, pp. 763-819.

Parsons, G. and M. Powell. 2001. Measuring the Cost of Beach Retreat. Coastal Management, Vol. 29, pp. 91-131.http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/089207501750069597

Payo A., A. Baquerizo and M. A. Losada. 2002. One-line model with time dependent boundary conditions. Proc. 28th Coastal Engineering Conf., ASCE, World Scientific, Vol. 3, pp 3046-3052.

Santiago, J. 2006. Evolución Ambiental y Socioeconómica como Fundamento de la Ordenación Litoral, PhD thesis, Universidad de Granada, Spain. 259 pp. In Spanish.

Stynes, D.J. 1997. Economic impacts of Tourism: A handbook for tourism professionals. Urbana, IL: University of Illinois. Tourism Research Laboratory.


Full Text: PDF

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.