ON THE TWO STEP THRESHOLD SELECTION FOR OVER-THRESHOLD MODELLING

Pietro Bernardara, Franck Mazas, Jérôme Weiss, Marc Andreewsky, Xavier Kergadallan, Michel Benoît, Luc Hamm

Abstract


In the general framework of over-threshold modelling (OTM) for estimating extreme values of met-ocean variables, such as waves, surges or water levels, the threshold selection logically requires two steps: the physical declustering of time series of the variable in order to obtain samples of independent and identically distributed data then the application of the extreme value theory, which predicts the convergence of the upper part of the sample toward the Generalized Pareto Distribution. These two steps were often merged and confused in the past. A clear framework for distinguishing them is presented here. A review of the methods available in literature to carry out these two steps is given here together with the illustration of two simple and practical examples.

Keywords


POT; threshold; extremes; physical declustering; statistical optimization

References


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