MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE PROJECTION OF FUTURE COASTAL CLIMATE CHANGE

Nobuhito Mori, Tomoya Shimura, Sota Nakajo, Tomohiro Yasuda, Hajime Mase

Abstract


This study analyzes future change of averaged coastal physics such as sea level rises, sea surface winds and ocean wave heights based on the climate data set combining IPCC(2007) results and the latest MRI high-resolution AGCM results. The ocean wave height is statistically projected using an empirical formula with sea surface wind by multi-model ensemble. The ensemble means and their standard deviations of coastal forces are presented for the year 2000 to 2100. The signal of future change of Hs has stripped pattern in latitudinal direction and is clearer in the Southern Hemisphere than the Northern Hemisphere. The ratio of future change of $H_s$ to the present climate is 15% maximumly which is significant change than sea surface pressure and U10.

Keywords


sea level rise; ocean wave; climate change; statistical projection; CMIP3

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