PROBABILISTIC MODEL FOR TSUNAMI-WAVE ELEVATION ALONG THE ALBORAN SEACOAST

Abstract

In this study the tsunami-wave run-up along the Alboran Seacoast (Spain) have been evaluated. An indirect statistical method has been used to estimate the tsunami risk along the southeastern Spanish coast. This method can be summarized as: (1) analysis of the global neotectonic setting, the geodynamic processes as well as seismicity ofthe region; (2) tsunami source model; (3) generation, propagation and run-up numerical models; and (4) the risk model. The purpose of this study is to establish tsunami-wave elevation at the shoreline versus the return period curvesfor different locations along the Alboran seacoast. It is concluded that, the tsunamis generated in the Alboran basin have a medium-to-low intensity, with the most important elevations in the Malaga, Adra and Melilla areas