PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT OF BEACH EROSION AT PEVENSEY BAY IN ENGLAND

Ping Dong, Keith J. Riddell

Abstract


This paper presents a comprehensive case study in which probabilistic methods were applied to assess the risk of damage to properties protected by a shingle beach on the south coast of England. Both the short term storm response and longer-term longshore drift effects were considered. The mathematical model was calibrated against data from an extensive series of physical model tests and was used to predict the shoreline evolution for a number of beach management design options. A full cost-benefit analysis was carried out based on the predicted damage probabilities. The general methodology developed is believed to be applicable to other situations with different beach material types and various design options.

Keywords


Pevensey Bay; risk assessment; erosion

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