RISK-BASED ANALYSIS OF COASTAL PROJECTS

Abstract

Coastal engineering usually embodies large uncertainties about attacking forces and coastal/structure response. The coastal engineer must address these uncertainties with judgement and experience, supplemented with some level of direct probability analysis. The nature and scope of risks related to coastal projects are reviewed. Analysis approaches developed for wider engineering application, where risks are usually better defined (e.g. Ang and Tang 1975, 1984; Harr 1987), may be less effective in coastal engineering. Two accepted general approaches for risk-based analysis of coastal projects are discussed. The approaches are illustrated with an example shore protection project.