Ryszard B. Zeidler, Marek Skaja, Grzegorz Rozynski, Jarka Kaczmarek


The effect of climate change factors on Polish shoreline is investigated in mesoscales of decades and tens of kilometres along the entire Baltic coast, with emphasis on the selected segment from Ustka to Leba. Intensification of westerly wind circulation and sea level rise (SLR) are quantified as an input in computations of shoreline change by a one-line model. Joint probability distributions of wind and sea level derived under an extensive programme employing field data are used to produce input for computations of shoreline change due to rare events. The computations prove that the effects of both wind change and SLR can be perceptible in mesoscales, although it is difficult to clearly single out one from the other. In general, the westerly intensification of wind climate along the Polish coast seems to be slightly less important than SLR. A separate qualitative analysis of the acceleration of Polish shore retreat noted in recent years points to wind change as one of the possible causes.


Poland; shore evolution; wind; sea level

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