A STOCHASTIC TYPHOON MODEL AND ITS APPLICATION TO THE ESTIMATION OF EXTREMES OF STORM SURGE AND WAVE HEIGHT

Yoshio Hatada, Masataka Yamaguchi

Abstract


This paper presents a system for estimating extremes of storm surge height and wave height associated with typhoons, which consists of a Monte-Carlo simulation model for probabilistic generation of typhoon characteristics, termed a stochastic typhoon model, a parametric typhoon model for wind estimation, numerical models for the computation of storm surges or waves and an extreme analysis model for estimation of their return values. The system is applied to the estimation of 50 to 1000-year return values and their confidence intervals based on the computations over a period of 1000 years for storm surge heights in Ise Bay connecting to the Pacific Ocean, and for wave heights at some representative locations around the Pacific coast of Japan.

Keywords


wave height; stochastic model; typhoon; typhoon model; surge

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