PROBABILISTIC MODELING OF LONG-TERM WAVE CLIMATE

V.M. Leyden, W.R. Dally

Abstract


Utilizing eight years of wave measurements from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Field Research Facility (FRF), this study develops a long-term probabilistic model for the energy-based significant wave height (Hmo) based on the shifted gamma distribution. The method of moments is used in best-fit model parameter estimation. Shifted gamma distributions are developed for the entire eight years of Hmo data, as well as for the individual years in the data set. The shifted gamma distribution represents the FRF Hm0 data for both the total and yearly data sets. Further, the distribution which represents the total, or long-term, data also effectively models the yearly data, indicating that the shifted gamma distribution is a useful engineering tool for predicting long-term wave climate.

Keywords


wave climate; probabilistic modeling

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