SEA LEVEL RISE AND COAST EVOLUTION IN POLAND

Ryszard B. Zeidler

Abstract


Trends established for ten Polish tide gauge stations show the annual mean sea level (AMSL) growth rate from 0.8 to 2.9 mm per year in recent 35 years, and a linear trend computed for the years 1901-1990 yields some 1.2-1.6±0.2 mm/yr. Annual SL maxima (ASLM) trends are about one-half of the ASLM trends. Positive 6-hr SL increments Ah from storm events show a growing trend associated with 'storminess'. In the 'retreat' option for Polish coast, the impact zones between contour lines 0-0.3 m, 0.3-1 m, and 1-2.5 m cover respectively 845, 883 and 476 km2, thus 2204 km2 in total, in addition to 30 km2 of beaches and dunes likely to dissapear for ASLR2. Described by Zeidler (1992) are various 'fullprotection' techniques adopted. The Baltic atmospheric circulation is found to change as to direction but not as to wind speed. Subsequent (Fig. 9) insignificant changes in the net sediment transport, in the order of 15% per century are noted. Hence the coast evolution due to climatic changes in wind circulation patterns seems less important than the anticipated sea level rise induced changes.

Keywords


Poland; coastal evolution; sea level rise

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