A REGRESSION MODEL FOR ESTIMATING SEA STATE PERSISTENCE

Yoshio Hatada, Masataka Yamaguchi

Abstract


This paper deals with regression models for estimating probability distributions of long term wave height, sea state persistence above a wave height threshold and peak wave height during a storm, and yearly-averaged occurrence rate of peak wave height event. The models, in which input condition is the variance of long term wave height at a concerned sea area, were constructed on the basis of statistical analysis of the long term wave height data obtained around the Japanese coast. First, the effect of observation interval on the above-mentioned wave climate statistics was investigated and a method to remove the effect by use of FFT was proposed. Second, Applicability of each regression model was confirmed from close agreement between estimation and observation for the wave climate statistics. Finally, return periods of extreme wave height with prescribed sea state persistence and wave height threshold at wave observation points around the Japanese coast were estimated with a combination of the present regression models.

Keywords


sea state; regression model; estimating sea state

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