TSUNAMI THREAT EVALUATION BY HISTORICAL DOCUMENTS, NUMERICAL MODEL AND STOCHASTIC MODEL

Shigehisa Nakamura

Abstract


An evaluation of local tsunami threat was studied first refering to the historical documents and the catalogs. Secondly, an example of a numerical model of a finite difference method was discussed in relation to problems for reproducing the past local tsunamis and predicting a forthcoming tsunami. Lastly, a stochastic model was utilized in order to evaluate an exceedance probability of tsunami occurrencein an interested time period at an interesting local area where the concerened information or prediction was in need. The evaluation of a local tsunami threat is useful to get a more effective measure for the tsunami warning system and for protection works.

Keywords


numerical model; stochastic model; tsunami; tsunami threat

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