STABILITY ANALYSIS OF OCEAN PIPELINES : A PROBABILISTIC APPROACH

Leon C. Geustyn, Gideon de F. Retief

Abstract


A probabilistic approach to the lateral stability of a pipeline on the sea-bed is considered. The uncertainties involved in the deterministic approach, due to the stochastic nature of variables, inaccuracy of models and statistical error are discussed. Variables representing these uncertainties are identified and their statistical properties investigated. Procedures for computing the probability of stability failure are developed using both analytical and Monte Carlo simulation techniques. Example calculations are presented indicating typical applications. It is concluded that the probabilistic procedure, as presented here, can serve as a valuable tool in the stability analysis of ocean pipelines.

Keywords


ocean pipelines; pipelines; probabilistic approach; stability analysis

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