REAL-TIME WAVE FORECASTING WITH ADAPTIVE ARMAX MODELS

H. Wensink, T. Schilperoort

Abstract


A method is described for improving the accuracy of the wave predictions which are required for the operational guidance of the shipping traffic in approach channels to harbours and to support offshore activities. The method, as being described here, is based on the assimilation of wave physics and real-time hydrometeorological observations into a statistical time series model called ARMAX.

Keywords


ARMAX models; wave forecasting; real time forecasting; adaptive models

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