FREQUENCY OF OCCURRENCE OF STORM SURGES IN AN ESTUARY: A STOCHASTIC APPROACH

Abstract

This paper presents the results of a study on the frequency of occurrence of storm surge levels in the river Scheldt at Antwerp, related to the design of a storm surge barrier and the evaluation of the dike safety in the Scheldt basin. The basic principles of the extreme value distribution methods, the joint probability methods and simulation models are examined. A new technique, based upon the simulation of storms by variables characterizing the resulting surge is proposed. Results are compared with those of other methods.