ESTIMATING ERROR OF COASTAL STAGE FREQUENCY CURVES

Mark D. Prater, Thomas A. Hardy, H. Lee Butler, Leon E. Borgman

Abstract


A computer intensive statistical procedure known as the bootstrap has been used to estimate the error in coastal stage-frequency relationships due to uncertainties in hurricane meteorological distributions. These stage-frequency relationships are developed through the use of a joint probability method, so that the probability of a storm event is the product of the probabilities of the individual independent components which comprise that storm event. The bootstrap technique provides an estimate of the error of the stage-frequency by determining the variation possible in each component's probability distribution. This variability is due to the construction of the distribution from a finite set of historical events. An example of the bootstrap is given and stage frequency results and error estimates typical of a coastal region are shown.

Keywords


frequency curve; error; error estimation

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