STORM SURGE PREDICTION IN TIDAL RIVERS: A NEW CONCEPTION

Winfried Siefert

Abstract


The heights of extreme storm surges in the North Sea rise up to U or 5 m above mean high tide. Warning services are established along the coast, mainly based on empirical connections between weather and tide data. A lot of wrong announcements are given especially for places up the tidal rivers. This can become disasterous for a lot of modern, highly sensitive harbour facilities. Thus storm surges are the famous plagues of the southern North Sea coast. Moreover, the "ten plagues of Germany" occurred during the last 16 years. So recently a new conception for storm surge prediction in tidal rivers was developed - with the result of a lot of new understandings of tidal dynamics in rivers (SIEFERT, 1968). We investigated about 130 storm surges, hindcasting all of them and forecasting about 20 of them, and analysed their behaviour in tidal rivers. Now we are able to forecast the upstream heights and even the shape of the surge curve in the Elbe with an accuracy of ± 2 dm, ' 6 hours in advance.

Keywords


storm surge; surge prediction; tidal river

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