NUMERICAL STORM SURGE FORECASTING

Manfred Engel

Abstract


The present state of the development of an operative storm surge prediction system in Germany is described. It is based on numerical models of the atmosphere and the North Sea. First simulations of the storm surge on Jan. 3, 1976 yield the result, that the observed water levels along the North Sea coasts can be recalculated quite well using a meteorological input derived from observations, Whereas the forecasted water levels, using the predicted geostrophic winds of the atmospheric model, are too low since the pressure gradients are too weak. A series of storm surge recalculations with observed and predicted meteorological data shall answer the question, wether parameter fits, applied to the predicted wind stress, lead to satisfying results, suitable for practical applications.

Keywords


storm surge; surge forecasting; numerical forecasting

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