STORM SURGE PREDICTION BY COMBINED WIND AND TIDE DATA

Herman Christiansen, Winfried Siefert

Abstract


The authors suggest a storm tide forecasting method that allows high water predictions for a coastline 3 to 4 hours in advance with an accuracy of ± 30 min in time and ± 20 to 30 cm in height. It is based on actual (not on predicted) data, i.e. exact wind velocity and direction data from a reference station and tide data from two gauges. The method was developed by analysing storm surge curves and wind data of those 50 storm tides that occurred since 1965 in the German Bight. Another 50 storm tides back to the year of 1930 were taken into account, though without exact wind data. The method was proved at all storm tides since 1965 and applied with good success to the events during fall and winter 1977/78 for the coastline off Cuxhaven.

Keywords


storm surge; surge prediction; wind data; tide data

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