FREQUENCIES AND PROBABILITIES OF EXTREME STORM SURGES

Alfred Bohrbuter

Abstract


The North Sea as a very shallow sea with high wind set-up effects is acting highly as extremely sensitive measuring equipment for climatic changes, especially for surge producing weather conditions. The flood disaster in the Netherlands 1953, in Germany 1962, the Adolph-Bermpohl-Orkan (1967), with mean wind speed of 37 ra/sec. over 5 hours, the strong continental storm with high damages in the forests from France till Poland in November 1972, a series of 6 heavy floods in November/ December 1973 and two extreme floods in January 1976 with the highest water levels ever registrated in the German bight are indications for some changes in meteorological conditions. In this paper some hypothetical models shall be introduced which are able to show how extreme storm surge frequencies and probabilities are changing with time.

Keywords


storm surge; extreme surge; probability; frequency

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