AUTOMATED FORECASTING OF EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGES

N. Arthur Pore

Abstract


The Atlantic coast of the United States is affected by extratropical storm surges several times each winter. The most devastating storm of this type on record is that of March 1962. This storm caused damage estimated at over $200 million. The National Weather Service has developed an automated technique for forecasting such storm surges. Statistical forecast equations have been derived for 11 locations from Portland, Me., to Charleston, S.C. Input data to these equations are values of sea-level pressure as forecast by an atmospheric prediction model of the National Meteorological Center. A sample forecast equation is shown. The method was put into operation in 1971. Forecasts are transmitted via teletypewriter and extend to 48 hours at 6-hour intervals. A sample teletype message is shown. Forecasts of the devastating storm surge of Feb. 19, 1972, are discussed. These forecasts agreed reasonably well with observations of the storm surge. Experience with the method indicates it to be useful and therefore it will be expanded to include additional forecast locations.

Keywords


forecasting; storm surge; extratropical storm

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