STATISTICAL PREDICTION OF HURRICANE STORM SURGE

C.Y. Yang, A.M. Parisi, W.S. Gaither

Abstract


High water associated with a hurricane is an important design parameter in coastal engineering Long range rational predictions can be made on the basis of Gumbel's theory of extremes and Wemelsfelder's theory respectively Fundamentals and underlying assumptions of the two theories are investigated and predictions are made for Breakwater Harbor, Lewes, Delaware, and Atlantic City, New Jersey Gumbel's theory is found satisfactory according to a criterion A crucial point, the ground rule of counting exceedances, is found to be vague in Wemelsfelder's method The ground rule must be made definite in a meaningful prediction.

Keywords


statistics; surge; surge prediction

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