THE ASH WEDNESDAY EAST COAST STORM, MARCH 5-8, 1962 A HINDCAST OF EVENTS, CAUSES, AND EFFECTS

Charles L. Bretschneider

Abstract


Hmdcasts were made for winds, waves and tides for several east coast locations for the storm of 5-8 March 1962. A limited amount of recorded data and a considerable amount of other observations were available from near-by and remote stations. The data were analyzed for correlation or "calibration" purposes m order to improve the "state of the art" of wave and storm surge hindcastmg for locations where recorded data were not available. Wind records were analyzed to obtain sustained wind speeds, average gust factors, and probability distribution of gust factors. Isobaric patterns were used to determine sustained wind speeds over the water fetch for deep and shallow water waves and storm surge hmdcasts. Wave run-up calculations were made to determine the wave activity on the beach and the dunes and -were used to estimate the probable rate of beach erosion and dune evolution. The off-water wind speeds were modified to determine wind speeds over the beach and over the top of the dunes. Finally, by summarizing the time-history of the various meteorological, oceanographic, and coastal engineering events, a very interesting scientific and engineering evaluation of the causes and effects can be made.

Keywords


event hindcasting; Ash Wednesday Storm

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